商品市场K型分化：战略金属牛市延续 农副产品不断走低

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Domestic gold prices surged post-National Day holiday, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract breaking through 900 yuan per gram, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 47% [2] - International spot gold prices remain above 4000 USD per ounce, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to 4900 USD per ounce, up from a previous estimate of 4300 USD, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the gold market [2] Group 2: Strategic Metals - Prices of strategic metals such as copper, tin, and cobalt have also risen, with Jiangxi Copper, the largest copper processing company in China, hitting its daily price limit [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a year-to-date increase of over 80%, leading the industry in performance [4] - Analysts predict a long-term supply shortage for copper due to increasing demand from technological advancements and potential supply-side reforms [4] Group 3: Agricultural Products - In contrast to the rising prices of precious and strategic metals, prices of agricultural products like live pigs and eggs are declining, with live pig futures dropping below 12000 yuan per ton, nearing historical lows [5] - The average price of live pigs in China fell by 2.4% month-on-month and 28.6% year-on-year, reflecting a significant downturn in the agricultural sector [5] - The Chinese government has implemented policies to control pig production capacity, indicating a deep adjustment within the industry despite falling prices [5] Group 4: Economic Policies and Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that upcoming economic policies will likely focus on structural adjustments rather than broad stimulus measures, as the market anticipates a need for targeted interventions [6] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to create potential supply-demand balances that could lead to future price increases and improved industry dynamics [6] - The overall economic environment remains cautious, with expectations for demand recovery in the first quarter of next year [6]