日元大跌 日本央行加息进程生变

Core Viewpoint - The recent political changes in Japan, particularly the election of former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, have led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, driven by market concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook and uncertainty regarding future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3][4]. Currency Movement - On October 6, the yen depreciated sharply by 1.94%, breaking the key level of 150 against the dollar, and continued to weaken, falling below 151, 152, and 153 in the following days [3]. - On October 8, the yen reached a low of 153.003 against the dollar, marking a decline of over 3.7% since October 2, and this was the first time it hit this level since mid-February [3]. - The yen also depreciated against other major currencies, hitting a historic low against the euro at 177.86, the lowest since the euro's inception in 1999 [3]. Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi's economic policies are expected to maintain a loose monetary stance and advocate for active fiscal policies, which are seen as contributing to downward pressure on the yen [4][5]. - Her approach is viewed as a continuation of "Abenomics," focusing on fiscal expansion and tax reduction to address rising prices [4][5]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of the yen will depend on the implementation and impact of Takaichi's policies, with current market reactions primarily reflecting short-term sentiment [6][9]. - Despite the current depreciation, the yen is considered significantly undervalued, suggesting limited further downside even if Takaichi becomes Prime Minister [6][9]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The independence of the Bank of Japan may be influenced by Takaichi's leadership, with potential delays in interest rate hikes due to her dovish stance [8][9]. - The necessity for monetary policy adjustments will ultimately hinge on macroeconomic conditions, with the Bank of Japan's actions likely to remain responsive to economic performance rather than political rhetoric [7][9].