冻猪肉收储托稳市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The national average price of live pigs has decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, prompting the government to initiate central frozen pork reserves to stabilize the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - From January to September, the average price of live pigs was 15.1 yuan/kg, with a significant drop in September's last week to 13.27 yuan/kg, marking a 27.8% year-on-year decline and a cumulative drop of 19.9% since the beginning of the year [2]. - The average price of pork during the same period was 25.97 yuan/kg, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating that pork prices have not fallen as sharply as live pig prices [2]. - The primary reasons for the declining prices are strong supply and weak demand, with a notable decrease in pork consumption during the seasonal low in July and August [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The slaughter volume from January to August reached 24.87 million heads, a 17.4% increase year-on-year, contributing to an oversupply in the market [2]. - The market has seen a concentration of large pigs being sold, alongside reduced secondary fattening practices, leading to an excess supply situation [2][3]. - The average daily listing of white strip pigs in Beijing's Xinfadi market increased by 9.24% in September compared to August, further contributing to the downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 3: Government Intervention - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has established a multi-layered regulatory system to manage the growing supply and stabilize the market [4]. - The government aims to balance supply and demand through measures such as reducing secondary fattening and adjusting the weight of pigs at slaughter [4]. - The central frozen pork reserve initiative is designed to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive price drops, with a total of 35,000 tons of frozen pork stored this year [6]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's live pig futures have seen a decline of 11.18% from late August to early October, indicating ongoing market volatility [7]. - Historical data suggests that government interventions, such as frozen pork reserves, have previously led to price stabilization and recovery [8]. - Experts predict that the supply of live pigs will remain stable in the fourth quarter, with seasonal consumption increases expected during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, potentially leading to a gradual price recovery [8].