Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should exercise caution in further interest rate cuts to allow more time to assess economic data and the balance of inflation and labor market risks [1][2] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Current inflation still faces upward pressure, while the labor market shows signs of weakness, creating a "dilemma" for monetary policy [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is projected to rise above 3% by year-end, with overall inflation potentially not returning to the 2% target until the end of 2027 [1] - The recent announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration may exacerbate inflationary pressures, complicating the return to target inflation levels [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Labor Market - Consumer spending remains strong, but new tariffs on trucks could increase inflation pressure [2] - The softening labor market may help alleviate upward price pressures, but the lack of official data due to the government shutdown makes it difficult to assess the actual extent of demand slowdown [2] - Economic growth may face further pressure in the coming months due to slowing output growth and factors like tariffs and labor supply [2]
美联储理事巴尔警告进一步降息需谨慎 称关税或令通胀维持在高位
智通财经网·2025-10-09 22:28