智通财经网·2025-10-09 22:45Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of the Chinese aviation industry, highlighting that the market has achieved price liberalization and that fleet growth has significantly slowed. It anticipates a substantial and sustainable increase in profitability as supply and demand recover, with a potential "super cycle" beginning in 2026 if commercial demand remains strong [1]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - The demand for travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025 is expected to be robust, with a daily average increase of 6% in cross-regional personnel flow compared to the same period in 2024. Domestic air passenger volume is projected to grow over 3% year-on-year, while international routes may see over a 10% increase [1]. - Despite a slight increase in domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices, the high passenger load factor of 88-90% during the holiday period has helped maintain ticket prices, contrary to market expectations [1]. Group 2: Q3 Performance Outlook - The aviation industry is expected to show resilience in profitability, with preliminary estimates indicating a slight year-on-year increase in earnings for Q3 2023, despite a nearly 4% decline in domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices in July and August [2]. - The recovery in commercial demand and the impact of significant meetings in October are anticipated to drive an increase in passenger load factors and a near 2% rise in domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices in September [2]. Group 3: Future Profitability Drivers - The recovery of commercial demand is crucial for the aviation industry's profitability, with a notable increase in passenger load factors over the past year. If commercial demand continues to recover, the profitability of the industry is expected to rise significantly by 2026 [3]. - The Chinese aviation sector, primarily led by state-owned enterprises, is expected to benefit from regulatory measures that control flight schedule growth and low-price competition, which will support profitability recovery in the short to medium term [3].