Bitcoin’s On-Chain Profitability Has Surged With 97% of Supply Now in Profit: Glassnode

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent price surge to an all-time high near $126,000 is driven by institutional demand and steady on-chain accumulation rather than speculation [1] - Strong inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, exceeding $2.2 billion in a single week, have reversed previous redemptions and absorbed available supply on exchanges [2] - The fourth quarter is historically favorable for bitcoin, with sustained ETF demand likely to support prices as year-end approaches [3] Institutional Demand - More than $2.2 billion flowed into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs within a week, marking significant institutional buying activity [2] - Sustained ETF demand could anchor bitcoin prices as the year progresses [3] Accumulation Trends - Mid-tier holders (wallets with 10 to 1,000 BTC) have been the primary buyers, increasing their balances while larger holders have taken profits [4] - Nearly 97% of circulating bitcoin supply is currently in profit, indicating a late-stage bull cycle without signs of exhaustion [4] Price Support Levels - The $117,000–$120,000 price range is identified as a key area of on-chain support, where approximately 190,000 BTC were last transacted [5] Market Conditions - Market conditions are described as "robust but maturing," with rising futures open interest and funding rates indicating a buildup of leveraged long positions [6] - Realized profits remain controlled compared to previous market tops, suggesting a rotation of holdings rather than mass exits [6] Overall Market Structure - Bitcoin's market structure is considered sound, supported by institutional demand, deep liquidity, and broad-based accumulation [7] - Continued ETF inflows could extend bitcoin's rally into the fourth quarter, reinforcing its position as a structurally supported uptrend [7]