Forecasts for a Global Sugar Surplus Undercut Prices

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have extended losses, with NY world sugar 11 down by 0.30 (-1.80%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 down by 7.60 (-1.66%), reaching a 2-week low [1] - The decline in sugar prices is attributed to a projected global sugar surplus of +4.1 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by +15.7% year-on-year (y/y) to 3.622 MMT, contributing to bearish market sentiment [3] - The sugar content in Brazil's Center-South sugarcane dropped to 154.58 kg/ton in the first half of September, down from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 53.49% in the second half of August, compared to 47.74% the same time last year [3] Group 3: India's Sugar Outlook - India's cumulative monsoon rain as of September 30 was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% y/y increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 MMT, following a -17.5% y/y decline in 2024/25 [4] - Sugar trader Sucden indicated that India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]