智通财经网·2025-10-09 23:44Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the energy storage industry is at a pivotal moment, driven by significant reductions in battery cell costs and technological advancements, leading to a substantial decrease in energy storage system costs. The internal rate of return (IRR) has improved due to widening peak-valley price differences and the introduction of capacity pricing and compensation policies, suggesting a strong growth trajectory for the industry in the coming years [1][2]. Domestic Market Insights - The domestic energy storage market is transitioning from policy-driven demand to economically driven demand, following the end of mandatory storage requirements. The reduction in battery cell costs and technological improvements have significantly lowered investment costs, while the expansion of renewable energy has increased the peak-valley price difference, enhancing the arbitrage opportunities for energy storage [3]. - The introduction of capacity pricing and compensation policies is expected to further boost the IRR for domestic energy storage, leading to accelerated demand growth starting in 2026 [3]. International Market Insights - Since 2024, the global energy storage market has seen widespread growth, driven by significant reductions in photovoltaic and storage costs. The cost of electricity generated from solar power combined with high ratios of energy storage has become notably lower than other power sources, marking the arrival of an economic inflection point. Markets such as Europe, Australia, the Middle East, India, and South America have experienced accelerated demand growth [4]. - The anticipated increase in capital expenditures for AIDC (Advanced Industrial Development Corporation) projects is expected to benefit from the integration of renewable energy and high ratios of energy storage, providing stable power supply solutions [4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The willingness to invest in capital expenditures within the energy storage industry has significantly decreased in recent years due to the declining profitability of the lithium battery sector and tightened capital market financing. Under a neutral demand growth scenario of 75%, prices for materials such as lithium iron phosphate, separators, and copper foil may increase. In a more optimistic scenario with a 110% growth rate, a comprehensive price increase across material segments is expected, including a potential reversal in lithium carbonate prices [5][6].