Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar Inc. is currently trading above its intrinsic value according to a conservative DCF analysis, indicating limited margin of safety for long-term value investors [4]. Company Profile - Caterpillar is the largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and locomotives globally [2]. - The company benefits from a strong global scale, a durable brand, and a broad dealer network that supports recurring revenue from parts and services [2]. - Caterpillar's business is cyclical, linked to commodity and infrastructure cycles, but it generates robust free cash flow and practices disciplined capital allocation, making it attractive to value investors [2]. - Challenges include sensitivity to global economic slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, and competitive pricing pressures in the heavy machinery market [2]. DCF Analysis - The DCF model uses a discount rate of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [3]. - Forecasted free cash flows (in billions USD) are as follows: - 2025: $8.0B → PV: $7.27B - 2026: $8.4B → PV: $6.93B - 2027: $8.8B → PV: $6.61B - 2028: $9.2B → PV: $6.30B - 2029: $9.6B → PV: $6.01B - Total present value of free cash flows is $33.12B [3]. - Terminal value calculated using the perpetuity growth model is $141.2B, with a present value of $88.47B [3]. Enterprise Value and Equity Value - The enterprise value is calculated as $121.59B, derived from the total present value of free cash flows and terminal value [3]. - Net debt is $31.52B, leading to an equity value of $90.07B [4]. - With approximately 478 million shares outstanding, the intrinsic value per share is estimated at $188 [4].