美联储主席最新发声：确保社区银行稳健经营！纽约联储负责人：支持继续降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in response to potential risks in the labor market, as indicated by various officials including John Williams, the President of the New York Federal Reserve [4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of community banks in the U.S. financial system, highlighting their close ties to local economies and the need for tailored regulatory practices to ensure their stability [2][3]. - Powell did not address the current economic situation or monetary policy outlook during his recent speech [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rates - John Williams expressed concern over the gradual cooling of the labor market, noting that while the unemployment rate has only slightly increased, job vacancies and turnover rates have decreased significantly [4]. - Williams indicated that the overall employment market continues to show moderate cooling without signs of accelerated deterioration, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Williams assessed that tariffs have raised import prices, contributing to inflation, but the impact is less than previously expected, estimating an increase of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points in inflation rates due to tariffs [4][5]. - He noted that core inflation appears to be gradually approaching the 2% target, with improvements in housing costs being particularly significant [4][5]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Investors widely anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 94.1% probability of this outcome according to CME FedWatch [7]. - The minutes from the September monetary policy meeting indicated that due to weaker-than-expected employment data and rising risks in the labor market, officials are leaning towards further rate cuts [7].