Core Insights - The coking coal sector experienced inventory reduction during the National Day holiday, with supply constraints due to maintenance at some mines and a seven-day closure of three major ports for Mongolian coal, leading to a rapid decrease in port inventories [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in Q3, and supply chain trade profits also saw a recovery alongside price rebounds [1] - The high iron and steel production levels in the domestic "anti-involution" environment may support a tight supply-demand balance in the coking coal industry, potentially stabilizing prices and restoring profit margins for Mongolian coal trading companies [1] - CITIC Securities reported that the average net profit of tracked coal listed companies is expected to grow by approximately 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of about 27% for the first three quarters; coking coal and anthracite companies show greater earnings elasticity, while the thermal coal sector remains the largest profit contributor [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, the overall supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to remain stable, with potential short-term supply gaps during peak seasons; if the anti-involution policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] - The current policies, coal prices, and earnings expectations in the sector are improving, and the sector may see sustained excess returns with market style rotation or policy catalysts in the future [1] Related Hong Kong Stocks - The coal sector includes companies such as China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yida Zong (01733), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Qinfa (00866) [2]