中信证券：煤价四季度或进一步上涨

Core Viewpoint - Since the third quarter, domestic coal production growth has gradually slowed due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with expectations for continued supply constraints into the fourth quarter [1] Supply Side - Factors affecting supply, such as safety regulations and overproduction checks, are expected to persist, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation in the coal industry for the fourth quarter [1] - In December, a supply gap may re-emerge as the winter peak season approaches, despite a relatively loose supply in October and November [1] Demand Side - Short-term hydropower generation may impact the growth rate of coal consumption for thermal power, contributing to a balanced supply-demand scenario overall [1] Price and Performance Outlook - The coal sector's performance in the third quarter improved due to a rebound in coal prices, with expectations for further price increases in the fourth quarter during peak months [1] - If supply contraction policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] - The backdrop of improved policies, coal prices, and performance expectations increases the likelihood of a rebound in the coal sector in the fourth quarter [1] Investment Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on leading players benefiting from thermal coal dividends, as well as undervalued companies with good performance elasticity [1]