Global Markets Brace for Geopolitical Shifts as Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Takes Hold, China Tightens Rare Earth Grip

Group 1: Middle East Peace Efforts - The Israeli government has approved a deal with Hamas for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza, with Hamas set to free 20 living hostages in exchange for 2,000 Palestinian prisoners [2][3] - The U.S. is deploying approximately 200 troops to Israel to establish a civil-military coordination center to monitor the ceasefire and facilitate humanitarian aid [3] Group 2: Rare Earth Export Controls - China has announced new export controls on rare earth minerals, requiring foreign companies to obtain special approval for exporting items with even trace amounts of Chinese-sourced rare earths [4][5] - China accounts for nearly 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing, raising concerns about supply shortages in key industries such as aerospace and defense [5] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged to a record high of over $4,000 per ounce in October 2025, marking a 53% year-to-date gain driven by geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [8][9] - Analysts project further increases in gold prices, with forecasts suggesting $4,200 per ounce in the coming months and $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 [9] Group 4: Central Bank Policies - The Central Reserve Bank of Peru has maintained its reference interest rate at 4.25%, indicating a neutral monetary policy stance amidst stable inflation expectations [10] - The Banque de France forecasts modest GDP growth of 0.3% for Q3 2025, maintaining the same pace as the previous quarter despite rising uncertainty [11] Group 5: Brazil's Budgetary Challenges - Brazil's Finance Minister is exploring alternative budget options after Congress rejected a key investment tax proposal expected to generate 20.9 billion reais ($3.9 billion) in additional revenue for fiscal 2024 [12]