2025H2全球铜矿供给更为紧俏 | 投研报告

Core Insights - The report highlights that the global top 24 copper mining companies produced 7.41 million tons in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 200,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.8% [1][2] Group 1: Production Insights - The production guidance completion rate for top copper mining companies in H1 2025 was 49%, aligning with expectations [2] - Among the 24 copper mining companies, only 9 experienced a decline in production growth year-on-year, primarily due to lower ore grades, recovery rates, and external disruptions such as water resource limitations [1][2] - Major contributors to the production increase included Rio Tinto (+110,000 tons), China Molybdenum (+100,000 tons), Codelco (+60,000 tons), and Zijin Mining (+50,000 tons) [1][2] Group 2: Future Supply Trends - The production guidance for top copper companies in 2025 has been revised downwards, now expected to grow by only 1.7% compared to earlier guidance of 2.8% [3] - The downward revision in production guidance is attributed to delays in tailings construction and mining accidents [3] - For H2 2025, the total expected production from top mining companies is 5.7 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2% [3] Group 3: Cost and Financial Performance - The average C1 cash cost for 15 copper companies in H1 2025 was $1.72 per pound, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% [4] - The decline in C1 costs was primarily due to increased copper production and strong by-product prices, with only 4 companies reporting cost increases [4] - Chinese copper companies showed growth in net profit margins and free cash flow, while overseas companies experienced declines, likely due to cost control issues and production decreases [4]