Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.46%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.02% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 0.45 basis points to 1.9585%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield down by 0.9 basis points to 1.7740%, the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield down by 0.8 basis points to 2.1220%, and the 7-year government bond "25附息国债07" yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.70% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 612 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase agreement on October 9, with a bid amount of 612 billion yuan and a winning amount of 612 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 2,063.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,451.3 billion yuan [2] - The central bank also conducted its first buyout reverse repurchase operation in October, with a fixed quantity and interest rate tender for 1,100 billion yuan for a 3-month term (91 days) [2] - The funding conditions in the interbank market were relatively loose after the long holiday, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions dropping by about 6 basis points to around 1.32% [2] Operational Recommendations - The economic indicators for September showed signs of recovery during the peak season, but structural supply-demand contradictions remain, with slow domestic demand recovery being a constraint [3] - The current monetary policy focuses on execution, and if the third-quarter GDP is weaker than expected, there may be a possibility of policy easing [3] - The bond market is expected to be influenced by fund redemption fee regulations and changes in market risk appetite, with potential policy expectations driving stock market performance until mid-October [3] - The current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the long-short interest rate spread may limit the extent of long bond declines, with a potential increase in allocation value if the 10-year government bond yield rises above 1.8% [3] - Short-term treasury bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with T2512's fluctuation range likely between 107.4 and 108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for adjustment opportunities [3]
国债期货：长假后债市开门红 期债各品种均走暖
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-10 01:36