突破每盎司4000美元！五张图读懂黄金如何强势回归全球货币体系核心舞台

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in a three-year bull market, defying bearish predictions and traditional forecasting models [1] Part 01: Pandemic-Induced Turning Point - Gold prices initially surged past $2,000 per ounce due to market panic triggered by the pandemic, followed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which further fueled a 27% increase in gold prices in 2024 [1] - The return of Donald Trump to the White House in March 2025 contributed to gold breaking the $3,000 per ounce barrier [1] - Major macroeconomic factors, including a potential U.S. government shutdown and a weakening dollar, have supported the gold market [1] Part 02: Surpassing Inflation-Adjusted Historical Peaks - Last month, gold prices exceeded the inflation-adjusted historical peak of $850 per ounce set in January 1980 during a period of economic crisis in the U.S. [4] - The current market environment is seen as reminiscent of the conditions that led to the previous gold price surge [4] Part 03: Surpassing U.S. Treasury Status - Central banks have played a dominant role in the gold market, significantly increasing their gold purchases to diversify assets and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [7] - Gold's current value has surpassed the amount of U.S. Treasury securities held by non-U.S. central banks, becoming the second-largest asset in central bank foreign exchange reserves [7] - The market value of gold held by the U.S. has exceeded $1 trillion, significantly outpacing the recorded amounts on its government balance sheet [7] Part 04: Temporary Pause in Chinese Demand - In the first four months of 2024, Chinese market demand was a key support for rising gold prices, driven by a new wave of demand for safe-haven assets [10] - Recently, despite record high gold prices, Chinese market prices have fallen below international benchmarks, indicating a shift in market dynamics towards Western investors [10] Part 05: Surge in Gold ETF Holdings - Gold ETFs have become a mainstream channel for Western investors to gain exposure to gold, with significant inflows pushing prices higher [13] - After a period of outflows, gold inflows into ETFs have reversed, with over 16 million ounces added since mid-2024, although current holdings remain below pandemic-era peaks [13] Additional Insights - The recent surge in gold prices reflects a structural shift in investor sentiment and global capital flows, driven by sanctions, asset seizures, and concerns over fiscal sustainability [15]