欧洲头条丨总理闪电辞职 组阁前景不明 法国政局再度陷入僵局

Group 1 - The recent political turmoil in France is attributed to structural contradictions that have accumulated since President Macron dissolved the National Assembly in 2024 [1][2] - The political crisis is exacerbated by the significant increase in seats for the leftist "New People's Front" alliance and the far-right National Rally, leading to a fragmented political landscape [2][6] - The internal conflict within the ruling coalition centers around the controversial pension reform, which has faced strong opposition from both leftist factions and moderate right members [6][7] Group 2 - The new government formation is challenged by conflicting demands from various political factions, with Macron favoring a government led by his party while leftist groups demand representation [7][10] - The budget proposal for 2025 aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.4% of GDP, but the ongoing political deadlock raises concerns about its feasibility [11][12] - France's public debt has reached €3.4 trillion, equivalent to 114% of GDP, making it the third highest in the Eurozone, which poses significant risks to fiscal stability [12][14] Group 3 - The ongoing political instability has already resulted in an estimated loss of 0.3 percentage points in economic growth for 2025, with predictions indicating that growth could have been closer to 1% without the crisis [14][15] - Consumer confidence is at a low level, with the index currently at 87, significantly below the long-term average of 100, reflecting public apprehension regarding tax increases and reduced public subsidies [15][16] - The political paralysis is causing substantial concern among business leaders, who emphasize the urgent need for stable governance to address pressing economic challenges [15][16] Group 4 - The upcoming weeks will be critical for the new government's formation and the approval of the 2026 budget, which will directly impact France's economic trajectory and public confidence [17][18] - International rating agencies have issued warnings about potential downgrades to France's credit rating if the political deadlock and high debt levels persist [17][18]