智通财经网·2025-10-10 03:56Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with the expanded subsidy policy for vehicle replacement in 2025 expected to accelerate domestic sales and return to average levels. Although export growth has temporarily slowed, there is significant overseas market potential. Current low valuations of truck stocks suggest that future profits may reach new highs alongside sales, indicating that the investment value of truck stocks has not been fully realized [1]. Sales Performance - In August, heavy truck wholesale, terminal, and export volumes increased by 46.7%, 66.0%, and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively. The wholesale sales volume reached 92,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 716,000 units, reflecting a 14.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - Terminal sales in August totaled 67,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 486,000 units, marking a 25.3% year-on-year increase. The significant growth in terminal sales is attributed to the effective vehicle replacement policy [2]. - Heavy truck exports in August amounted to 39,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 246,000 units, showing a 7.1% year-on-year increase. Exports to regions outside Russia saw a substantial increase of 71.7% year-on-year [2]. Inventory and Demand - Inventory levels are healthy, with total inventory at 129,000 units as of the end of August, a slight year-on-year decrease. The dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio stands at 2.4, indicating a reasonable range [3]. - Since the beginning of 2025, logistics demand has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% in August for road freight turnover [3]. Market Share - In the first eight months of 2025, Foton Motor's heavy truck wholesale market share increased by 5.4 percentage points to 12.6%. Dongfeng Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, and Foton Motor also saw increases in their terminal sales market shares [3].