金融ETF（510230）盘中涨超1.3%，银行板块存修复预期

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector's fundamentals are showing slight improvement with low volatility, and excess returns are expected to return no later than November [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - M1 growth has peaked, and the progress of new quotas for insurance capital is a key observation point [1] - In August, the central bank reduced "other financial company debt" by 110 billion yuan, indicating that the capital market's activity level has reached a policy-consistent level [1] - Social financing, M2, and M1 growth rates are expected to peak in stages, with M1's peak confirmation expected by mid-November [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - If banks cannot stabilize market sentiment independently, counter-cyclical pressures may spread to other sectors [1] - Structural liquidity migration may lead to high monthly volatility in non-bank deposits [1] Group 3: Banking Sector Liquidity - The trend of short-term, current, and wealth management deposits, combined with self-discipline in interbank deposits, is increasing the instability of micro-bank liabilities [1] - The central bank's control over interbank liquidity is expected to strengthen [1] - Current interest rates have entered a reasonable equilibrium range, with limited upward and downward space [1] Group 4: Financial ETF - The Financial ETF (510230) tracks the 180 Financial Index (000018), which selects 180 representative financial industry securities to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese financial market [1] - The index emphasizes balanced industry allocation to capture market dynamics and investment opportunities in the financial sector [1]