智通财经网·2025-10-10 05:51Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities expresses optimism about Alibaba's e-commerce business stability, growth potential in its delivery and in-store services, and long-term growth prospects in cloud and AI sectors, projecting Non-GAAP net profits of 101.3 billion, 155.5 billion, and 203.4 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 respectively, with a target price of 199 HKD per share and a "strong buy" rating [1] E-commerce Business - Alibaba's e-commerce sector maintains robust competitiveness, with GMV growth aligned with the overall online retail market, and an expected steady increase in monetization rates driven by improved site-wide promotion penetration and rapid growth in flash sales [1] - Profitability in traditional e-commerce is anticipated to recover due to favorable industry competition and significant revenue growth compared to the previous year [1] Instant Delivery Services - The Taobao flash sales segment has shown rapid development, with daily orders reaching 80 million in August, and while September saw seasonal fluctuations, market share remained stable [2] - Increased investment in the September quarter is expected to lead to improved profitability in the future, driven by lower customer acquisition costs, higher average order values, and cost optimization from economies of scale [2] In-store Group Buying - Gaode launched the "Street Ranking" feature, which utilizes user behavior data to create a credit system for offline services, achieving over 400 million users within 23 days of launch [3] - With a projected 890 million monthly active users by August 2025, the penetration rate of the Street Ranking feature is nearly 50%, supported by significant subsidies to reduce user costs for in-store visits [3] Cloud and AI Business - Alibaba Cloud's revenue is experiencing accelerated growth due to increasing customer demand for AI, with expectations for continued upward trends in revenue growth [4] - The company plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, enhancing its competitive edge in the cloud computing sector, which is expected to further improve long-term profitability driven by AI advancements [4]