黄金周报｜美国政府关门，金价突破4000

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of October 8, London spot gold closed at $4040.42 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $281.64 per ounce since September 26, representing a 7.49% rise [1] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $4059.31 per ounce during the National Day holiday, with a low of $3819.10 per ounce [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][9] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.1, indicating resilience in manufacturing despite a decline in new orders [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a projected annualized growth rate of 3.8% for Q3 [3] - The ADP reported a decrease of 3,200 jobs in September, falling short of market expectations, reflecting a sluggish labor market [3][4] Group 3: Political and Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, has resulted from political disagreements over budget issues, particularly concerning healthcare subsidies [5][6] - The shutdown has led to delays in the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report, contributing to market uncertainty [7] - Political instability in France, highlighted by the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu, may also impact financial markets [8] Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut cycle, increasing macroeconomic policy uncertainty, and a global trend towards "de-dollarization" is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][9] - Central banks, including China's, continue to increase gold reserves, indicating a sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]