日元“凉凉”！日本央行加息押注升温

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as the yen's weakness raises concerns over rising import prices and inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Currency and Bond Market - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a new high of 153.2700 since February 13, before slightly declining to 152.7900, reflecting a decrease of 0.18% [1]. - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.7%, marking the highest level since July 2008 [1]. - The 5-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.24%, also the highest since July 2008 [1]. - The 2-year Japanese government bond yield remained unchanged at 0.925%, while the 20-year yield fell by 1 basis point to 2.705% [1]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield held steady at 3.175% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Speculation - The victory of the dovish candidate, Sanae Takaichi, in the ruling party's presidential election has reversed market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's potential delay in interest rate hikes [1]. - Concerns about the yen's depreciation leading to increased inflation have intensified market speculation about the timing of interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [1]. Group 3: Intervention Risks - Former Bank of Japan official Atsushi Takeuchi indicated that if the yen were to fall sharply towards 160, intervention by authorities might be necessary to curb excessive depreciation [2]. - Takeuchi noted that while intervention may not change the overall trend, it could temporarily stabilize excessive volatility in the currency market [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate closed above the 153.00 mark, having effectively broken through the key resistance level of 151.00, providing technical support for further upward movement [3]. - The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a slightly overbought condition, which may suppress bullish sentiment for new positions [3]. - Overall technical patterns suggest that the path of least resistance for the exchange rate remains bullish, with potential buying opportunities if the price retraces to the 152.60-152.55 range [4]. - If the USD/JPY continues to rise, it may face resistance around the 153.70-153.75 area, with a need to break through the psychological level of 154.00 to accelerate upward movement towards 154.70-154.80 [4].