Group 1: Industry Overview - UBS reports that the fundamentals of China's copper and aluminum metal industry are stable with a positive outlook [1] - Industrial metal prices are supported by macroeconomic factors rather than physical market supply tightness, including US interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, confidence in aluminum trade, and potential additional stimulus measures from China [1][2] - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with short-term demand slowdown risks easing and mid-term fundamentals for copper and aluminum remaining attractive [1][2] Group 2: Copper Outlook - The copper market fundamentals remain stable, with prices supported by macroeconomic factors despite reduced trade due to US tariffs in Q3 [2] - UBS expects that by 2026/2027, copper prices will rise due to limited mine supply growth, pressure on refined output, strong long-term growth drivers (electrification, technology), and a recovery in traditional demand drivers [2] - UBS raises its copper price forecasts for 2025/2026 from $4.24/lb to $4.37/lb and from $4.68/lb to $4.80/lb, translating to $9,634/ton and $10,582/ton respectively [2] Group 3: Aluminum Outlook - Aluminum demand is mixed, but supply is constrained, with limited production growth in China and elsewhere [3] - UBS raises its aluminum price forecasts for 2025/2026 from $1.11/lb to $1.17/lb and from $1.16/lb to $1.18/lb, which corresponds to $2,579/ton and $2,600/ton respectively [3] - Following the upward revision of copper, aluminum, and gold price forecasts, UBS has increased the earnings expectations and target prices for related concept stocks, including a 5% increase in earnings expectations for China Hongqiao and a 4% increase in target price to HKD 28 [3]
瑞银：铜铝金属基本面稳中向好，上调中国宏桥(01378)目标价至28港元