黄金股票ETF（517400）回调超5%，未来央行增持黄金或仍是大方向

Core Points - The U.S. private sector added 32,000 jobs in September, which is below expectations, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has risen to 92.5%, with an 81.5% chance of another cut in December [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened recession fears and increased market demand for safe-haven assets [1] Employment Data - The ADP report shows a decrease in private employment, with 32,000 jobs lost in September, which is lower than market expectations [1] - Future employment data releases may influence the pace and magnitude of potential interest rate cuts [1] Monetary Policy - The CME FedWatch indicates a significant likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming months, reflecting market sentiment regarding economic conditions [1] Gold Market - Central banks globally are increasing gold purchases, with China's gold reserves rising for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by September 2025, which is 7.7% of its foreign reserves [1] - The average global gold reserve percentage is 15%, suggesting that China has room for further increases in gold holdings to optimize its international reserve structure [1] Gold Stocks ETF - The Gold Stocks ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stocks Index (931238), which includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of companies in the gold industry and is characterized by high industry concentration and a value investment style [1]