Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Bank of America Securities expects a strong performance from Chinese brokerage firms, with a projected average net profit growth of 9% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year by Q3 2025, driven by robust brokerage fee growth and potentially exceeding stock trading revenue expectations [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and CITIC Securities are anticipated to lead the industry, with projected year-on-year net profit growth of 258% and 116% respectively for Q3 [1] - Despite strong fundamentals, H-shares of brokerage firms underperformed in September due to concerns over growth from Q4 2025 to H1 2026 and state-owned enterprises' reduction in holdings [1] Group 2 - Bank of America Securities has raised its earnings forecast for Chinese brokerage stocks for 2025 to 2026 by 0% to 13%, expecting an average profit growth of 30% among major listed Chinese brokerages, with CICC expected to outperform [2] - The daily average trading volume forecast for A-shares has been increased by 14% to a range of RMB 1.6 trillion to 1.7 trillion [2] - The target prices for H-share brokerages have been raised by an average of 4% to reflect higher profit forecasts, with abundant market liquidity continuing to support market growth [2]
美银证券:料中资券商第三季纯利同比增21% 首选中金公司(03908)、中信证券(06030)及广发证券