韩国扭转低生育率尚需更强增量政策

Core Insights - South Korea is experiencing a slight rebound in its birth rate after years of decline, with a 7.2% increase in newborns from January to July 2023 compared to the previous year, marking the highest growth rate since 1981 [1] - The total fertility rate reached 0.8 in July 2023, and if the current trend continues, the birth population is expected to grow for two consecutive years by the end of 2023 [1] Birth Rate Trends - South Korea's birth rate has been declining for over 60 years, with a record low of 0.72 in 2023, making it one of the lowest globally [3][4] - The number of newborns in 2023 was only 230,000, less than one-third of the peak in the 1970s, with Seoul's fertility rate at a mere 0.59 [3][4] Economic and Social Factors - High housing costs and education expenses are significant economic pressures for young South Koreans, leading many to choose to have fewer or no children [4] - The rapid transition from an agricultural to an information society has altered cultural values, with increased female education leading to delayed marriage and childbirth [5] Gender Roles and Family Dynamics - The traditional expectation for men to be the primary breadwinners contributes to a sense of helplessness among young men, leading to a phenomenon known as the "three abandonments" generation [6] - Young people are increasingly prioritizing personal quality of life over traditional family responsibilities, with many delaying marriage and childbirth for career advancement [6] Policy Responses - The South Korean government has implemented various policies to address low birth rates, including financial incentives for families, parental leave, and childcare support [9][10] - Direct economic support includes a one-time birth subsidy of 2 million KRW per newborn and monthly allowances for childcare [10][11] Challenges Ahead - Despite government efforts, the low birth rate poses a long-term social crisis, with predictions of a significant decline in the working-age population and increased pressure on the social security system [8][9] - The current fiscal deficit exceeds 86 trillion KRW, raising concerns about the sustainability of increased financial support for birth and childcare policies [14]