智通财经网·2025-10-10 07:36Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Alibaba-W (09988) while slightly adjusting revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 to 1,050.3 billion, 1,187.9 billion, and 1,305.0 billion yuan respectively, primarily due to low revenue contribution from instant retail business during its investment phase [1] Revenue Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 have been adjusted to 1,050.3 billion, 1,187.9 billion, and 1,305.0 billion yuan [1] - The adjustment is attributed to the low average transaction value in the instant retail business during its initial investment phase [1] Net Profit Forecast Adjustments - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 are set at 108.4 billion, 150.2 billion, and 177.2 billion yuan [1] - The adjustments are due to higher-than-expected investment in flash purchase business and increased computational power investments related to AI applications and other business segments [1] Upcoming Financial Report Expectations - Alibaba is expected to release its Q2 FY2026 financial report soon [1] - Guosen Securities anticipates a 4% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2 FY26, projecting revenue of 245.6 billion yuan [1] - The international digital commerce group and cloud intelligence revenue are expected to grow by 17% and 30% year-on-year respectively, while the Chinese e-commerce group is projected to decline by 13% quarter-on-quarter [1] Profitability Expectations - For Q2 FY26, adjusted EBITA is expected to be 8.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 79% year-on-year decline [1] - The adjusted EBITA margin is projected at 3.5%, down 13.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to peak investment in flash purchase business and increased computational demands for AI applications [1]