债市日报：10月10日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures declining across the board, and the market is expected to experience weak fluctuations post-holiday, with potential for slight rebounds due to policy changes and market dynamics in the fourth quarter [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed down, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.49% to 113.970, the 10-year main contract down by 0.06% to 107.980, and the 5-year main contract down by 0.09% to 105.650 [2]. - The interbank major interest rate bonds weakened, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.75 basis points to 1.9675%, and the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 2.139% [2]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported that the weighted average yield for 2-year and 50-year government bonds was 1.4526% and 2.2977%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.48 and 3.62 [3]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 4,090 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,910 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates collectively declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.3 basis points to 1.319% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Guosheng Securities anticipates a potential recovery in the bond market during the fourth quarter, with a gradual reduction in yield spreads and a preference for leveraging and barbell strategies [6]. - CITIC Securities suggests that liquidity gaps in October are manageable, and if the central bank implements interest rate cuts or resumes government bond purchases, there may be further downward pressure on rates [6]. - Changjiang Securities notes that while consumer spending has shown signs of recovery, the sustainability of this trend and the recovery of corporate profits remain uncertain [6].