CCL Stock: Abandon Ship or Full Steam Ahead?

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corp. reported strong revenue and earnings for Q3 2025, but the stock experienced a decline post-earnings, raising questions about the market's reaction [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Carnival reported revenue of $8.2 billion, a 3.8% increase from $7.9 billion in Q3 2024, and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.33, up 5.6% from $1.26 [3]. - Consolidated revenue for the quarter was $8.15 billion, exceeding sell-side forecasts of $8.1 billion [3]. Guidance and Future Outlook - The company provided strong guidance updates, indicating robust cruise bookings for 2026 and raising its fiscal year 2025 earnings guidance from $1.97 to $2.14 per share [4]. - Despite the positive outlook, shares fell post-earnings, suggesting investor skepticism or reaction to other factors [4][5]. Debt Offering Context - On the same day as the earnings release, Carnival announced a $1.26 billion debt offering, which initially seemed to trigger the stock's decline [6]. - However, the debt offering is intended to refinance existing higher-yield debt, suggesting a strategic move to lower interest expenses rather than increasing leverage [7][8]. Market Comparison - Carnival's stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12, significantly lower than competitor Royal Caribbean's ratio of around 17, indicating potential for valuation improvement [11]. - The reinstatement of dividends by Royal Caribbean contrasts with Carnival's current status, but as Carnival pays down debt, it may also reinstate dividends, enhancing its attractiveness [11][12].