AI热潮会不会重蹈互联网泡沫的覆辙？｜全球贸易观察

Core Insights - The excitement surrounding AI's potential to drive growth is causing a surge in the tech sector, but there are warnings that this may lead to a bubble similar to the internet bubble of the late 1990s [1][6] - Major financial institutions, including the IMF and Deutsche Bank, caution that the current valuations in the tech sector are nearing levels seen during the internet boom, which could lead to a significant market correction and impact global growth [1][6] - The Oxford Economics report highlights that the tech sector has been a key driver of recent U.S. economic growth, but warns that a downturn in this sector could severely affect GDP growth and business investment [2][6] Group 1: Economic Impact of AI - AI-related products have significantly contributed to global trade growth, accounting for nearly half of the overall trade increase in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year value increase of 20% [4] - The U.S. economy is currently avoiding recession largely due to investments in AI data centers, but this situation is not sustainable without continued large-scale investments [1][5] - The investment growth in information processing equipment and software is projected to reach an annual growth rate of 20% to 40% in the first half of 2025, marking the fastest growth since the late 1990s [7] Group 2: Risks of Tech Sector Decline - The concentration of market value in the top five tech companies (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia) is at a 50-year high, making the market particularly vulnerable to shocks if AI expectations cool [6][7] - If the tech sector experiences a downturn, it could lead to a significant drop in U.S. GDP growth, potentially falling to 0.8% by 2026 under certain recession scenarios [6][7] - Historical parallels are drawn to the 2001 tech bubble, where a similar decline in tech stocks led to a 70% drop in stock prices and a decrease in business investment [7][8]