氧化铝期货的市场基差是什么

Core Insights - The market basis for alumina futures reflects the difference between spot prices and futures prices, influenced by supply and demand, storage costs, and policy expectations [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Basis Formation - Supply and Demand: Short-term shortages in the spot market, such as increased production of electrolytic aluminum or reduced production of alumina, can raise spot prices and expand positive basis. For instance, the basis for the December 2024 alumina 2501 contract reached 496 CNY/ton due to limited circulation of goods [2] - Costs and Logistics: Transportation bottlenecks for bauxite or rising storage costs can widen the basis. For example, the suspension of bauxite exports from Guinea led to futures prices rising above spot prices, resulting in a negative basis of -329 CNY/ton [2] - Policy and Market Expectations: Environmental production limits and tariff adjustments can cause regional basis fluctuations. Typically, the basis converges as the delivery month approaches, although liquidity risks may weaken this convergence [2] Group 2: Significance of Basis for Trading - Hedging: Dynamic position adjustments are necessary to hedge against basis volatility risks [3] - Arbitrage Opportunities: When the basis deviates from historical averages (e.g., alumina basis rate above 80% of the statistical range), there may be opportunities for futures-spot arbitrage [3] - Price Forecasting: The structure of the basis (e.g., backwardation in distant months) can indicate the market's long-term supply and demand expectations [4]