突发！“黑天鹅”

Core Viewpoint - The sudden dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan, with the Komeito party withdrawing from the alliance led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), poses significant uncertainty for the political landscape and the potential appointment of Sanna Takai as Japan's first female Prime Minister [1][2]. Political Landscape - The Komeito party's exit from the coalition may disrupt the process of appointing Sanna Takai as Prime Minister, especially as the National Diet is set to hold a vote for the next Prime Minister on October 15 [1]. - The LDP and Komeito together hold 215 seats in the House of Representatives, which is below the majority threshold of 233 seats. If Komeito withdraws, the LDP will have 191 seats but will still remain the largest party [1]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Komeito's withdrawal, the Nikkei index futures dropped over 1200 points, reflecting a decline of more than 2% [2]. - The initial reaction in the foreign exchange market saw the yen strengthen to 152.36 before retreating, stabilizing around 152.8 later in the day [4]. Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that investors are becoming cautious about the risks of a short-term political vacuum and delays in policy execution. The previous expectations of economic stimulus from Takai's policies may lead to a reversal of the "sell yen, buy stocks" trend that emerged after her election victory [6]. - If the opposition parties present a unified candidate instead of Takai, the gains in the USD/JPY exchange rate driven by the "Takai trade" could be fully reversed. However, the market has not yet fully priced in the risk of Takai not becoming Prime Minister [6]. Stock Market Outlook - The uncertainty introduced by Komeito's exit is expected to exert pressure on the Japanese stock market. The LDP may be forced to make concessions, potentially weakening Takai's economic policies [7]. - The Nikkei index could retreat to around 40,000 points, as the market adjusts to the new political landscape and the expectations surrounding Takai's policies diminish [7].