智通财经网·2025-10-10 13:32Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season for major U.S. banks is expected to show strong performance driven by a recovery in investment banking and resilient economic conditions supporting consumer and commercial lending [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - JPMorgan is projected to see a more than 10% increase in earnings per share (EPS) for Q3, with investment banking revenues expected to grow in the low double digits [1]. - Bank of America anticipates nearly a 17% year-over-year increase in EPS, with investment banking revenues expected to rise by 10% to 15% [2]. - Citigroup's EPS is expected to surge by 26%, primarily driven by capital markets activities [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 31% increase in EPS, benefiting from a rebound in investment banking and trading [2]. - Morgan Stanley expects over an 11% increase in EPS, supported by its strengths in capital markets and wealth management [2]. - Wells Fargo's EPS is projected at 1.54, while other banks have specific EPS estimates as well [3]. Group 2: Investment Banking Activity - Investment banking activities have rebounded due to regulatory easing and expectations of further interest rate cuts, with JPMorgan describing the summer as one of its busiest merger seasons [4]. - As of mid-September, 49 merger deals were announced in Q3, up from 39 in Q2 and 32 in the same period last year, with a total global merger volume reaching $2.6 trillion, the highest since the pandemic peak in 2021 [4]. Group 3: Trading and Interest Income Outlook - Trading revenues are expected to grow, with analysts noting that Q3 typically sees lower trading activity, but 2025 appears to break this trend [6]. - Net interest income (NII) is anticipated to remain robust due to the resilient U.S. economy, with banks reporting that consumer financial conditions are stable [6]. - Concerns are emerging regarding potential increases in default rates among small businesses, despite the overall positive outlook for investment and commercial banking [6].