RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft: Move in oil shows de-risking due to peace deal

Group 1: Middle East Peace Deal and Oil Market Impact - The recent peace deal in the Middle East is leading to a significant shift in market sentiment, allowing investors to derisk geopolitical turmoil related to oil [2][4] - The potential for Israel to feel secure may influence oil prices, with speculation that prices could drop into the $50 range if stability is achieved [4] - OPEC's cautious increase in production by 137,000 barrels is noted, with expectations that actual increases may be less due to limited spare capacity, particularly from Saudi Arabia [6] Group 2: Eastern Europe and Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia poses significant risks to oil supply, particularly as Ukraine targets Russian energy infrastructure [8][9] - Ukraine's acquisition of new missile technology may enable more aggressive actions against Russian energy facilities, potentially leading to reduced Russian energy production [9] - The geopolitical dynamics in Eastern Europe are critical for understanding near-term oil market conditions, as Russia relies on energy sales to fund its military efforts [9]