Core Viewpoint - The recent unexpected appreciation of the US dollar has caught the foreign exchange market off guard, with the dollar index rising significantly amid global financial uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index has shown strong momentum, reaching a nine-week high and approaching the 100 mark, with a peak of 99.47 on October 10 [3]. - This performance marks a reversal from the earlier trend in 2023, where the dollar index had declined over 10% in the first three quarters, making "shorting the dollar" a favored strategy among traders [3]. - The recent strength of the dollar is attributed more to the weakness of other currencies, particularly the euro, pound, and yen, rather than a robust US economic fundamental [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - The global uncertainty has heightened risk aversion, supporting the dollar's rise, similar to the behavior of gold during times of crisis [4]. - Analysts express caution regarding the long-term outlook for the dollar, indicating that its future performance will depend on the resolution of the US government shutdown and upcoming economic data [5]. - Potential risks include prolonged government shutdown impacts on the economy, the influence of Trump's interventions on Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical factors affecting market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Renminbi Performance - Contrary to the strengthening dollar, the renminbi has appreciated against the dollar, with offshore renminbi rising over 200 points from October 9 to 10 [6][7]. - Factors contributing to this trend include the announcement of new policy financial tools to support growth and a strong domestic stock market attracting foreign investment [7]. - The overall market expectation for the renminbi remains stable, with a potential for continued appreciation against the dollar, suggesting a "dual bull" scenario for both the renminbi and the dollar index [7].
全球避险情绪升温 美元暂获“喘息”机会
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-10-10 18:20