Trucking market exits outweigh entrants in Q3, suggesting possible tightening

Core Insights - Recent data indicates that trucking capacity is tightening, with more companies exiting the market than entering, particularly in Q3 2023 [2][8] - The FMCSA operating authority data provides a snapshot of the market but does not fully capture the complexities of supply, demand, and rates in the trucking industry [4][6] - Experts suggest that despite lower capacity, a significant market shift in favor of carriers is not expected in the near term [5][6] Industry Trends - The analysis of FMCSA data shows a notable decline in new entrants to the trucking market, with September 2023 recording the lowest level of grants in operating authority since February 2025 [8] - A large disparity exists between dry van contract rates and spot rates, indicating that the market dynamics are not favorable for carriers at this time [5] - The small end of the market still has 39% more drivers than pre-pandemic levels, contributing to an ongoing capacity overhang [7] Employment Data - The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, which lags by six months, indicates that payrolls in the trucking sector were around 505,000 in March 2025, reflecting a 3.1% decrease compared to the previous year [6] - The current employment levels suggest that trucking capacity has reverted to early 2018 levels, highlighting a significant contraction in the workforce [6]