Treasury Yields Snapshot: October 10, 2025

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.05% on October 10, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.53% and the 30-year note at 4.63% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, prior to the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] Group 2: Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a lead time to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-3 month occurred from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024, with fluctuations between positive and negative since February 26 [5][6] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.30% [7] Group 4: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has been a significant factor in market behavior, particularly regarding Treasury yields and their relationship with the S&P 500 [8]