日本执政联盟瓦解致“高市交易”逆转!策略师预警：日元或反弹 日股恐遭抛售

Group 1 - The Komeito party, led by Tetsuo Saito, has expressed intentions to break away from the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), signaling a significant political shift in Japan [1][2] - The failure of Saito and LDP's new president, Sanae Takaichi, to reach an agreement on party funding rules has led to Komeito's decision not to support Takaichi in the upcoming prime minister election [1] - Despite losing Komeito's support, Takaichi is still likely to become the next prime minister due to the LDP's majority in both houses of the Japanese parliament, although this coalition's dissolution introduces considerable uncertainty into Japan's political and legislative agenda [1][2] Group 2 - The breakdown of the LDP-Komeito coalition has reversed the so-called "Takaichi trade," with the Nikkei 225 futures index falling by 1.42% and the yen strengthening, leading to a 0.25% drop in the USD/JPY exchange rate to 152.69 [2] - Analysts suggest that the previous expectations of monetary easing under Takaichi's leadership may be tempered due to the loss of Komeito's support, potentially leading to a rebound in the yen to around 151.60 or 151 [4] - The new political uncertainty is expected to pressure the Japanese stock market, with potential policy concessions from the LDP that could weaken Takaichi's economic policy influence [4]