Stocks Pressured by Higher Bond Yields

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown is in its second week, causing delays in key economic reports, including unemployment claims and inflation data [1] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1] Market Reactions and Stock Performance - Dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams support bonds and stocks, indicating a willingness to back lower rates if economic conditions evolve as expected [2] - Most stock indexes reached record highs this week, driven by optimism in the AI sector and expectations of corporate profit growth [2] - Airline stocks are performing well, with Delta Air Lines seeing a +6% increase after raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast [3][13] - Costco Wholesale reported stronger-than-expected September sales, leading to a more than +2% increase in its stock [3][15] Corporate Earnings Expectations - Over 22% of S&P 500 companies provided guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to exceed analysts' expectations, the highest in a year [7] - Q3 profits are projected to rise by +7.2%, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is expected to slow to +5.9% from 6.4% in Q2 [7] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The market is pricing in a 95% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [8] - Rising inflation expectations are influencing T-note prices, with the 10-year T-note yield up +2.3 basis points to 4.140% [9] - Concerns about the ongoing government shutdown are providing support for T-notes, as it may lead to job losses and reduced consumer spending [10] International Market Developments - European government bond yields are rising, with the 10-year German bund yield up +1.3 basis points to 2.692% [11] - The ECB's recent meeting showed a slightly hawkish stance, with policymakers deciding against an interest rate cut amid inflation risks [12]