5 companies have captured an insanely large share of the U.S. ad market over the last decade

Core Insights - The U.S. advertising market has shifted significantly, with five major tech companies now controlling nearly two-thirds of the market [1][2] - MoffettNathanson's report indicates that generative AI is disrupting traditional TV advertising, leading to a decline in interest in conventional media [1][4] Market Share Dynamics - The five major companies—Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and TikTok (ByteDance)—have increased their share of the U.S. ad market from 22% nearly a decade ago to an expected 65% this year, representing a growth of 400 basis points or $260 billion [2][3] - The remaining market is projected to decline by $7 billion, reaching a total of $143 billion [3] Growth Projections - The total U.S. ad growth forecast for 2025 is slightly above previous estimates at 6.3%, driven primarily by digital channels rather than traditional media [4] - Cable TV advertising is expected to decline by 8%, while broadcast advertising revenue will decrease by 9%, leading to an overall drop in total TV advertising revenue by 9% [4] Shifts in Advertising Spending - Linear TV is anticipated to lose $4 billion in ad spending this year, with advertising-based video on demand (AVOD) regaining approximately $2 billion [5] - Overall spending, including retail, is projected to add nearly $32 billion to the U.S. ad market [5] Industry Trends - The report highlights a trend of declining linear TV viewership, with online video platforms like YouTube and ad-supported streaming services gaining popularity, especially among younger consumers [6] - During the 2025–26 TV upfront season, there is a notable shift towards leveraging popular influencers and creators to attract advertising dollars away from traditional TV [7]