日股“高市交易”迎来挑战，主要反对党考虑联合推出首相候选人

Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan has raised expectations for fiscal expansion policies, leading to a surge in the Japanese stock index and a rapid depreciation of the yen to early-year levels. However, recent developments have cast uncertainty on her prospects of becoming the next Prime Minister of Japan [1]. Group 1: Political Developments - The Komeito party leader, Saito Tetsuo, announced the end of the 26-year coalition with the LDP due to dissatisfaction with Kishi Sanae's handling of a political scandal, complicating her chances of becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister [2]. - The dissolution of the "LDP-Komeito alliance" means that Kishi Sanae's path to premiership is now more uncertain, as the LDP holds 196 seats and Komeito 24 in the 465-seat House of Representatives, which is still short of a majority [2]. - The election process for the Prime Minister involves a two-round voting system, where if no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will occur between the top two candidates [2]. Group 2: Opposition Response - The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), views this as a significant opportunity to unseat the LDP, with its leader, Noda Yoshihiko, expressing willingness to support other party leaders [3][4]. - Noda emphasized the need for cooperation among opposition parties to prevent Kishi Sanae from ascending to the premiership, despite the CDP holding 148 seats [4]. - Tamaki Yuichiro, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, expressed caution regarding the formation of a united opposition front, acknowledging the lack of consensus on various policy issues [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The political turmoil has created a "dilemma" for the Japanese markets, with expectations of monetary easing leading to a significant depreciation of the yen, which may prompt government intervention if the yen weakens further [5]. - The Japanese bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields rising, and concerns may escalate if Kishi Sanae compromises fiscal discipline to gain support from opposition parties [5]. - Moody's Analytics highlighted that Kishi Sanae's past controversial statements and economic proposals raise concerns about her ability to address Japan's deep-rooted macroeconomic challenges effectively [5].