Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-10 23:04Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock price has experienced a significant decline, with an 8.45% drop on October 10, marking a total decrease of 16.02% over six consecutive trading days, raising market concerns [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 10, southbound funds sold Alibaba shares worth 18.1 billion HKD, contributing to downward pressure on the stock price [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% on the same day, indicating a broader tech sector pullback that affected Alibaba's stock [1] Group 2: Analyst Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts a 70% year-on-year decline in adjusted earnings for Alibaba by the end of Q3 2025 due to investments in AI and instant retail, heightening market anxiety [1] - Despite short-term profit adjustments, Bank of America maintains a bullish outlook, reiterating a buy rating with a target price of $200, citing long-term growth potential from cloud services and e-commerce monetization [1][2] Group 3: Long-term Growth Potential - Bank of America forecasts Alibaba's cloud business to maintain a high growth rate, with revenue growth expected to accelerate to 30% year-on-year [1] - The report indicates that Alibaba's customer management revenue in e-commerce is projected to grow steadily by 10%, particularly benefiting from instant retail on Taobao [1] - By FY2028, Alibaba's net profit growth is expected to recover to 39%, supported by a valuation model that includes DCF valuation of core businesses and the value of Ant Group's equity [2]