美国消费者信心三连降 政府关门冲击经济预期

Core Insights - The October consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined for the third consecutive month, reflecting growing public concern over the economic outlook amid government shutdown, high inflation expectations, and slowing job growth [1][2] - The current index is significantly lower than levels seen in early 2025 and before the return of former President Trump, nearing lows observed during the inflation peak in 2021 [1] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year have slightly decreased from 4.7% in September to 4.6%, still above the current actual inflation rate of 2.9% [1] Economic Context - Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, making changes in consumer confidence a significant indicator of overall economic trends [2] - Historical data shows that government shutdowns, while having limited direct economic impact, often lead to significant declines in consumer confidence [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has entered its 10th day, causing key economic indicators to be suspended, making the Michigan survey a crucial alternative for gauging economic direction [1][2] Political and Monetary Policy Implications - The U.S. economy is currently in a sensitive phase with slowing hiring rates, uncontrolled inflation, and rising recession risks [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that policymakers are attempting to guide the economy through a "challenging situation" during this turbulent period [2] - Analysts warn that if the government shutdown continues and consumer confidence weakens further, it may suppress household spending willingness, posing downward pressure on economic growth [2]