制冷剂价格上行，萤石及氢氟酸行情回暖

Core Viewpoint - The prices of third-generation refrigerants have increased as of September 2025, while prices of PVDF and HFP have decreased [2] Group 1: Refrigerant Prices - As of September 30, 2025, the prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a are 62,500 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 52,000 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of 4.17%, 0.00%, and 0.97% respectively compared to the end of August [2][4] - The price of R22 has decreased by 4.23% month-on-month to 34,000 yuan/ton, but has increased by 13.33% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Fluorspar and Hydrofluoric Acid Prices - As of September 30, 2025, the prices for wet and dry fluorspar are 3,628 yuan/ton and 3,828 yuan/ton, showing month-on-month increases of 10.07% and 9.50% respectively [2][4] - The market price for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is 11,704 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 11.83% [2][4] Group 3: Air Conditioning Production Trends - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year in October, November, and December 2025, with production volumes of 11.53 million units, 12.96 million units, and 16.36 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 17.98%, 14.70%, and 8.60% [3] - Since June 2024, the export volume of R32 has shown an upward trend due to increased overseas demand and enhanced production capacity of domestic air conditioning companies [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas and the maintenance of third-generation refrigerant production quotas at baseline levels indicate a tightening supply-demand relationship [4] - The prices of refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant year-on-year price increases for R32, R134a, and R125 of 64.47%, 55.22%, and 40.00% respectively [4] - Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources are recommended for investment due to their strong positions in the refrigerant industry and complete industrial chains [4]