早已埋下的伏笔与“结构性疲劳”：专家分析日本自公联盟破裂

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Japan's Komeito party to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks the end of a 26-year partnership, introducing new uncertainties in Japan's political landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Background of the Coalition - Komeito, a center-right party established in 1964, has been in a coalition with the LDP since 1999, maintaining a cooperative relationship even during periods of LDP's opposition [3]. - The coalition has historically been characterized by mutual support, where the electoral fortunes of both parties were intertwined [3]. Group 2: Reasons for the Coalition's Breakdown - The primary reason for Komeito's exit is linked to the LDP's "political money" scandal, which has significantly affected both parties' electoral prospects [6][8]. - High-profile appointments by new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, particularly involving individuals associated with the scandal, have exacerbated tensions between the two parties [6][8]. - Komeito's emphasis on political integrity and its longstanding opposition to constitutional amendments have created ideological rifts with the LDP, particularly during the Abe administration [7][8]. Group 3: Implications for Future Politics - The dissolution of the coalition introduces significant uncertainty for the upcoming prime ministerial election, with Komeito's exit reducing the likelihood of Takaichi's successful election [9][10]. - If Takaichi is elected, her administration will face challenges in passing legislation and budgets due to the loss of Komeito's support, potentially leading to internal dissent within the LDP [10]. - The current political instability reflects a broader trend of frequent leadership changes and a decline in public trust in government, exacerbated by economic pressures and internal party conflicts [11][12].