日本央行加息进程生变

Core Viewpoint - The recent political shift in Japan, marked by the election of former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and other major currencies, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook and the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's future interest rate policies [1][2][5]. Currency Movement - On October 6, the yen depreciated by 1.94% against the US dollar, breaking the critical 150 level, and continued to weaken, falling below 151, 152, and 153 in the following days [2]. - The yen reached a low of 153.003 against the dollar on October 8, marking its lowest level since mid-February, with a cumulative decline of over 3.7% since October 2 [2]. - The yen also depreciated against other major currencies, hitting a historic low against the euro at 177.86, the lowest since the euro's inception in 1999 [2]. Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi's economic policies are seen as a continuation of "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal measures and maintaining a loose monetary policy, which is expected to exert downward pressure on the yen [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi's stance against interest rate hikes and her advocacy for active fiscal policies are the primary reasons for the yen's recent depreciation [2][3]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of the yen will depend on the implementation and impact of Takaichi's policies, with current market reactions primarily reflecting short-term sentiment [5][8]. - Despite the current downward pressure, the yen is considered significantly undervalued, suggesting limited further depreciation potential even if Takaichi becomes Prime Minister [5][6]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The independence of the Bank of Japan is relatively weaker compared to the Federal Reserve, and Takaichi's election is expected to influence the central bank's policy stance, although the extent of this impact will depend on her execution and authority within the government [8][9]. - Current inflation in Japan is viewed as driven by cost-push factors rather than demand, indicating that premature interest rate hikes could hinder economic recovery [8][9].