Kurt Geiger’s a Bigger Contributor to Steve Madden Than First Thought

Core Insights - Steve Madden Ltd.'s acquisition of Kurt Geiger is viewed positively by Wall Street analysts, highlighting potential for retail growth and profitability in the U.S. market [1] - The wholesale channel presents significant opportunities for Kurt Geiger, with current U.S. wholesale accounts including major retailers like Dillards, Bloomingdales, and Nordstrom [1] - Analysts expect Kurt Geiger to contribute positively to earnings per share (EPS), with initial estimates of 10 cents in 2025, potentially increasing to over 40 cents in the following year [3][4] Retail Growth Potential - Kurt Geiger has six retail stores in the U.S. that are performing well, showcasing strong four-wall profitability [1] - There is a long runway for retail growth at Geiger, particularly as the brand can leverage its existing store performance [1] Wholesale Opportunities - The current number of retail doors in the wholesale channel for Kurt Geiger is estimated to be less than 500, compared to competitors like Coach and Michael Kors, which have between 1,200 to 2,000 [1] - The potential for gaining shelf space in retail stores is highlighted, especially as competitors like Michael Kors face challenges with inventory restocking [2] Earnings Projections - Madden's management anticipates that Kurt Geiger will be accretive to EPS, with a target of 10 cents in 2025, despite recent guidance pullbacks due to external factors [3] - Analysts project that if revenue growth can be re-accelerated to a low-double-digits percentage, Kurt Geiger could contribute over 40 cents to EPS [4] - Long-term projections suggest that Kurt Geiger could account for $1.50-$1.70 in EPS based on management's revenue assumptions of $1 billion and a mid-teens operating margin [5]