Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is experiencing a dichotomy in production and demand, with some companies maintaining high production levels while others face significant slowdowns due to high copper prices and reduced downstream orders [4][28][34]. Group 1: Production Dynamics - A copper rod company in Jiangxi has been operating at full capacity to meet order demands, producing over 1,000 tons of recycled copper raw materials before the National Day holiday [2][5]. - According to Mysteel's survey, 19 out of 61 surveyed copper rod companies chose to continue production during the holiday, indicating strong demand in certain segments [2][4]. - In contrast, some companies, particularly in the refined copper rod sector, have extended their holiday breaks due to high inventory levels and slow order pickups, with an average holiday duration of 4.05 days in 2025 compared to 3.95 days in 2023 [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The copper price surged due to supply disruptions from the Grasberg copper mine incident, leading to a cautious approach among downstream buyers [4][34]. - The average copper price in 2025 has been higher than in 2024, yet end-user orders have not returned to peak levels, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4][34]. - High copper prices have resulted in increased production costs for refined copper rod companies, with some reporting a 30% decrease in orders compared to the previous year [28][33]. Group 3: Inventory Management - Companies are adopting varied inventory strategies, with 30% of firms maintaining current stock levels while another 30% are delaying production due to unclear policies and weak demand [7][28]. - The need for careful inventory management is emphasized, as companies must balance production with financial pressures and market uncertainties [7][34]. - Some companies are facing significant financial strain due to high inventory levels, with one firm reporting a stock of over 2,000 tons, double the normal level, leading to increased financial costs [26][33]. Group 4: Demand for Lithium Battery Copper Foil - The demand for lithium battery copper foil has surged, with one company reporting a 40% increase in urgent orders compared to the previous year [14][20]. - During the National Day holiday, many copper foil companies maintained over 80% operating rates, significantly higher than the typical 50% [22]. - The growth in the lithium battery sector is driving production decisions, with companies adjusting their output to meet urgent customer demands [16][20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to face a supply surplus in 2025, transitioning to a shortage in 2026, primarily due to tightening supply conditions [37][40]. - The Chinese government has set clear growth targets for the recycled metals sector, which may influence production strategies in the coming years [40][41]. - Analysts predict that while short-term price fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to structural demand growth in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [34][41].
铜价每吨八万三 客户问我还敢不敢接单
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-10-11 02:14