1 10月股市后市展望：要乐观也要理性

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a mixed performance in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high but exhibiting signs of fatigue and structural divergence among sectors [1][2][3]. Market Performance - In September, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882 points, marking a five-month consecutive increase and a new 10-year high [1]. - Despite the overall upward trend, the index faced significant adjustments, dropping below 3750 points at times, indicating a lack of upward momentum [1]. - The banking sector experienced a weighted average decline of over 6% in September, continuing a three-month downward trend, which exerted pressure on the overall market [2]. Sector Analysis - Emerging industries, particularly those related to computing power algorithms, maintained strong performance despite facing some adjustment pressure [2]. - The market showed a structural divergence, with growth-oriented technology stocks being active while traditional value stocks, such as banks, appeared fatigued [3][4]. - The ratio of advancing to declining stocks was approximately 3:2, suggesting that many investors, despite heavy positions, did not realize significant profits [2]. Future Outlook - Optimism exists among investors regarding the potential for the index to break through 4000 points in October, with the index closing at 3897 points on October 10 [3]. - The recovery of bank stocks in October is anticipated, but expectations for strength should be tempered [4]. - The market is likely to undergo consolidation after surpassing 3900 points, with technology stocks expected to drive the push towards 4000 points [4].