Group 1 - The report utilizes a sectoral balance framework to evaluate the impact of fiscal and monetary dynamics on risk asset performance, highlighting the effects of cooling inflation, rising unemployment, and a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve [1] - The analysis incorporates trading strategies in real estate, equity, and bond markets, leveraging fiscal flow analysis, functional finance, demographics, and the real estate cycle [1] - Key economic indicators are identified as G (Federal spending), P (Non-Federal Spending), X (Net Exports), and C (Credit), which can be used to derive accounting identities relevant to GDP and aggregate demand [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that an increase in the federal deficit leads to a rise in private surplus, which in turn positively influences risk asset markets [1]
October 2025 Trading Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications
Seeking Alphaยท2025-10-11 02:59